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The "Monty Hall Paradox" - RF Cafe Forums
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Kirt Blattenberger
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Post subject: The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:53 pm
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| Site Admin |
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Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2003
2:02 pm
Posts: 451
Location: Erie, PA
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The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Most of us have taken at least one statistics
course. The calculated results of most exercises
usually jibed with expected result. The famous "Monty
Hall Paradox" involving whether the contestant should
switch doors after the first opened door is shown
to contain a goat. Should the player stick with
his original door, or change to the remaining unopened
door in order to improve his chances of winning?
PhDs have argued philosophy vs. mathematics over
the situation. Here is an online applet that demonstrates
the possibly surprising best choice. I say based
on evolving conditions, the best answer is 50/50.
You?
http://www.letsmakeadeal.com
_________________ - Kirt Blattenberger
RF Cafe Progenitor & Webmaster
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SunshineDesign |
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Post subject: Re: The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 11:35 pm
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Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2008
11:35 pm
Posts: 6
Location: Ramona, CA
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It is always best choice to change your selection
after the first wrong choice. This is based on mathematics
and statistics.
_________________
Sunshine Design Engineering
Services
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Clay |
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Post subject: Re: The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:01 pm
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Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010
4:02 pm
Posts: 4
Location: Ontario, Canada
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I saw one of 'The Mythbusters' shows the other night
with the 3 door paradox. They decided that
changing
your first choice was best. I'll go with Kirt and
say 50-50. There were not enough
random samples
for critical analysis. Flip an unbiased coin 10E6
times and still get 50-50.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Best regards,
/Clay
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SunshineDesign |
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Post subject: Re: The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:32 am
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Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2008
11:35 pm
Posts: 6
Location: Ramona, CA
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Here are 2 articles that may help analyze the problem
and provides some insight why peoples' intuition
get this wrong and why the better choice is to switch
choice, if you get the first choice wrong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
http://saliu.com/monty-paradox.htmlEnjoy
the reading. If Game Theory interests you, I just
finished an excellant read in Bruce Bueno de
Mesquita's "The Predictioneer's Game". It is a facinating
read on Game Theory and how "predictions" can
be made of people choices as Bruce book states
"Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See
and Shape the Future." They had a show on Bruce's
work 2 years ago on TV. The US Govenrment State
Depatrment and CIA has rated Bruce's prediction
of world political and other events at better than
90%. This is increadible statistics on future
predictioneering.
_________________
Sunshine Design Engineering
Services
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Clay |
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Post subject: Re: The "Monty Hall Paradox"
Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:45 pm
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| Lieutenant |
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Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010
4:02 pm
Posts: 4
Location: Ontario, Canada
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Thanks for those links, very interesting.
How
the paradox is stated seems to matter as well.
Best regards,
/Clay
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Post subject: Re: The "Monty Hall Paradox"Posted: Thu Mar
15, 2012 4:45 pm
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tsiros |
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Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012
8:22 am
Posts: 2 |
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all this with the (possibly false) assumption that
the room contents do
not change
after the first door has been chosen. The assumption
holds, when doing a purely theoretical analysis
of the situation (based on game theory/statistics)
but i would be hesitant to apply the results on
a tv game-show. Although a goat might be of some
use here in greece now with the recession and all.
greetings to all!
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Posted 11/12/2012
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